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Writer's pictureJ Andrew Carl
Jul 97 min read

The Reality of the Dump Biden Movement.

This 'Movement' is a self-serving creation, lacking genuine practical support.

 

It's the brainchild of pundits, who need a sensational topic for interviews, Candidates who fear losing their reelection, and some media members who feel the need to overcompensate for their previous failures to cover the President’s health properly.

 

Not only is this movement destined to fail, but the longer it persists, the greater the likelihood of a complete fracture within the Democratic Party.

 

Three major hurdles cannot be overcome to replace Joe Biden.

 

Campaign Donations, State Laws, and Successorship

 

Campaign Donations

Anyone who has run for office, run a campaign or examined campaign finance reports understands that money is the lifeblood of any campaign.

 

The Biden Campaign spent $80M in a battleground state ad blitz, starting March[i] and leading up to the first debate[ii]. It plans to spend $67M on ads and voter outreach in July[iii].

 

According to Real Clear Politics polling[iv], on July 5th, this was the state of the race in the battleground states before the debate.

 

One look at the polling makes clear why they are pouring money into the Philadelphia Media Market without qualifying for the lowest unit rate.


Any candidate other than Kamala Harris will be coming into the race at a considerable disadvantage to the Trump Campaign and their $284.9M[v] War Chest.

 

Regardless of the new nominee's popularity, fundraising prowess, and renewed hope within the party of defeating Trump, only the Vice President can access the vast majority[vi] of the $240M the Biden Campaign has in the bank.

 

According to the FEC[vii], the Biden Campaign can give its money to the DNC, refund it, give it to State and Local Parties, or give it to a Super PAC.

 

I suspect that if President Biden is forced out of the Race, the super PAC that gets his money will spend it on attacking Donald Trump rather than promoting the candidate that replaced him and his handpicked successor.


State Laws

One key theme in the DNC efforts, the President’s Reelection, and the countless down-ballot Democratic candidates this year is election integrity. Any narrative in which the democratically elected nominee is replaced 30-45 days before the convention will put the DNC, the new nominee, and those countless down-ballot Democrats with the swing voters who will decide this election.

 

Wisconsin

According to Newsweek[viii], “It said that only death can remove a candidate's name from a Wisconsin ballot.”

 

The only way the Democrats could capture Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes is with Biden on the ticket. Even if the Democratic Party is willing to challenge this law in court, ceding the Election Integrity Issue, it is unlikely this issue will prevail in court.

 

Nevada

Newsweek explains Nevada is even worse for the Dump Biden Movement. “Nevada's deadline for changing candidates ended at 5 p.m. on the fourth Friday of June - in this case, June 28, 2024.” “It also allows special consideration beyond that deadline if the candidate is mentally incapacitated.[ix]”

 

I would pay good money to watch a movie, TV series, or a reboot of The West Wing where the plotline revolves around an 81-year-old candidate who is suddenly declared mentally incapacitated following a disastrous debate[x] [xi], after spending years making multiple gaffes[xii], faces calls for cognitive testing[xiii] and a damning special counsel's report[xiv].

 

There will be a never-ending stream of legal challenges. Pundits, journalists, bloggers, millions of social media users, and countless trolls and bots from every corner of the world will seize every opportunity to highlight every mistake and misstep Biden has ever made.

 

There would be renewed calls to hear the tapes from the Special Counsel and more questions about why the President hid it via executive privilege[xv].

 

You would see protests and demonstrations all over the nation. The nightly news, late-night TV hosts, cable TV, and social media would use words like insurrection, coup, and treason more than they do now.

 

There would be calls to impeach the entire cabinet, and every employee of the West Wing would be called to testify before Congress. The Secret Service, janitors, maintenance staff, culinary staff, and anyone who saw the president behind closed doors will face subpoenas from Congress, AGs, and DAs nationwide. Nevada’s 6 Electoral Votes aren’t worth that circus.

 

Ohio

The Democrats need a Zoom call to nominate their candidate two weeks before the convention[xvi].

 

This means the party that is calling the opposition a threat to democracy is going to have a behind-the-scenes, backroom deal to replace the democratically elected nominee.

 

If the Dump Biden Movement were to succeed, it would have to sacrifice Ohio with Nevada and Wisconsin and have a brokered convention so the party and the nation could see the process.

 

While Ohio is likely going red, no political operative wants to be acquainted with a memo advising giving away its 17 electoral votes and 16 in Nevada and Wisconsin.

 

And even if you could overcome advising giving away 34 Electoral Votes in what should be a razor-thin election.

 

Every pundit and armchair operative calling to replace Biden seems to forget there are 8 contested House seats and 3 contested Senate Seats in those states. If the Democrats lose control of the House by less than 8 and the Senate by less than 3, those losses will solely fall on the Dump Biden Movement.

 

Succession

 If the Dump Biden Movement succeeds, Kamala Harris must be the nominee.

 

As Vice President, she has been nationally vetted. She is the president's natural successor, and there wouldn’t be any issue with her taking over the pre-convention Ohio Zoom nomination.

 

More importantly, she can legally assume the campaign staff and infrastructure and can seamlessly take over the Biden War Chest.

 

Aside from ceding 16 electoral votes, as well as potentially 5 House Seats and 3 Senate seats, which will suffer when the DNC and Harris Campaign pull out of Wisconsin and Nevada, Harris’ stance on crime as an AG will put her at odds with woke and progressive voters in the remaining battleground states.

 

If Trump were to take his Vice Presidential nominee from one of the remaining battleground states, we could be looking at a race that comes down to only four toss-ups before the opening of the Democratic Convention.

 

Biden’s chances are better than that.

 

The harm the Dump Biden Movement is causing to the Democratic Party is much worse in the long term than just losing on November 5.

 

Currently, there is a mutiny among Democratic mega-donors. Some, like Disney heiress Abigail Disney, refuse to send money to the DNC until Biden is replaced. [xvii]

 

Others are pausing donations to Pro Biden PACs and DNC.

 

What will happen in September and October is anyone’s guess. In my experience, most people who make public statements tend to seek fame, and those who seek fame don’t like to admit they were wrong, misinformed, or made a fool.

 

While some will find loopholes, others will fund House and Senate Candidates, as well as DCCC and the DSCC, and some will wait until 2025.

 

None of which helps the Democrats maintain control at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue or in the Capital.

 

What’s more, the longer this movement goes on, the longer the Vocal Minority will go nuts on social media and contact their elected officials, calling for them to back the Dump Biden Movement publicly.

 

This will put more prominent Democrats in a position to call for Biden to stand down.

 

We have Democrat elected officials[xviii] and candidates[xix], donors[xx], talk show hosts[xxi], and countless talking heads[xxii]and armchair pundits[xxiii] all now calling for Joe Biden to “do the right thing.”

 

All four of the recognized Newspapers of record, The New York Times[xxiv], The Wall Street Journal[xxv], The Los Angeles Times[xxvi], and The Washington Post[xxvii], all have op-eds calling for a sitting president to resign.

 

The problem with that is many of the people who want Joe Biden to do the right thing have defended him against calls that he was slowing mentally, lost a step, and wasn’t the same candidate he was during the campaign in 2020.

 

The larger issue is what will this chorus do when it’s clear Joe Biden isn’t going anywhere?

 

 

As an aside, Trump cannot be replaced either, for the same reasons.

 

While a brokered Republican convention would occur in time for the new candidate to get on the Ohio Ballot, the Republicans would cede Nevada, Wisconsin, and Trump’s War Chest.

 

Trump is also more likely to use his War Chest to dismantle his replacement and all members of the GOP he sees as disloyal than any candidate in History, if the Republicans could even unite behind one candidate.

 

Since 2020, the rematch between the 45th and 46th Presidents has been a foregone conclusion. No other candidate stood a chance to challenge either for the nomination.

 

At this point, all we can do is hope that the candidates of 2025 and beyond spend more time looking for what unites us as a nation than what divides us.

 

I began this draft on July 4, 2024, about 15 miles from Independence Hall. I think that all of us on all parts of the political spectrum would do well to take some time to read the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights, which together make up a little more than five pages of text in 12-point font, single-spaced, with 1-inch margins.

 

In those five pages, men from 13 states, with challenges and differences, came together to declare America free. To create a government that has lasted till today, which has codified our rights, and which allows the people of this great nation to bring about change via elections, constitutional amendments, as well as our rights to speak freely, protest against our government and say nearly anything we want on the internet.

 

The 89 men who signed one or both documents branded themselves traitors to the crown and opened themselves up to execution. However, they still came together and sought what united the 13 colonies. They focused on the common good and found compromises when they could.

 

As a nation, we should look around between now and November 5 and the fallout after and remember the example of those 89 men who met in Philadelphia.


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